Maybe you love to bet parlays. Or possibly you’ve already learned that it doesn’t make a whole lot of good judgment to play parlays. Either way, this little anecdote should help as some re-enforcement. I have an 18 yr. old nephew and yesterday we went to watch the Sunday games together. He knows what I do for a living and as I’m talking on which games I’m specially cheering for, he says in an casual way, “Yeah, this is who I need,” and pulls out … a parlay card. If you’re not familiar with a parlay card, I think I was exposed to them my sophomore year of high school. They’re provided by the local bookie and they pay terrible odds. It’s a good way to hook young people on betting because you can wage as low as $10 and the assurance is: little risk, ton of reward. Or so they think … But I’m here to inform you: as a common rule of when to gamble parlays the reply is … NEVER. Parlays usually hold a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you hand the book a better advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is grounds enough to restrain the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that regularly lead to betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, but they are not. They believe they can prevail more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher likelihood of failure. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting. A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose, it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you would still make the bet? A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or zero on that same team, depending upon whether the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't need to be there. The skilled handicapper is at all times seeking to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the effect of luck to the maximum extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as possible. To end the story … My nephew had bet a 4-teamer for $10 at odds of 10 to 1. And $100 to a high school kid is a pretty big deal therefore he was pretty wound up particularly after he pulled in the opening bet during the 1 o’clock games. Now he had 3 games going at 4 o’clock and it was time to sweat it out. Chicago scores a late TD to cover, 2 for 2! New Orleans rolls over the Bills, 3 for 3! Now it’s down to one final game and he collects his $100. He just needs Pittsburgh minus 5 over Cincinnati and they’re coving the number until … Cincy scores to make it 21-16 and goes for the 2 point conversion and … they don’t get it. At a regular sportsbook he’d still be OK: 3 wins and a push makes you a 3-team parlay winner. But with a local bookie a push is a loss, so he’s in rough shape. Then to put the nail in the coffin Cincinnati scores one more TD and wins outright. Final tally: 3 wins and 1 loss. If he had bet the games straight he’s picked up almost 2 units on the day and he’s thrilled. On a parlay, a three and one record gets you bupkiss, nothing. Take my advice and stay away from parlays, they are a suckers’ bet. Rich Allen Sports Betting Professor
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Perhaps you like to bet parlays. Or possibly you’ve already learned that it doesn’t make a whole lot of good judgment to play parlays. Either way, this little anecdote should help as some re-enforcement.
My name is Rich Allen, owner of the Sports Betting Professor website http://www.sportsbettingprofessor.com 2 years ago we hired an actual PhD Statistician to develop a quantitative system to win constantly betting on American Football, NBA Basketball, College Football and Major League Baseball. Our results have been stellar. Hear proof from my winning partners by visiting the website or go directly to my video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpJxbt1D5h0 .
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