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My Top 5 Commodity Plays for This Year

By: Halston

The trading profits to be made over the next 5-7 years in basic commodities is unimaginable. You don't want to miss out on this "perfect storm" market opportunity. We are now entering the next phase of the first major move in the commodity markets in the past 30 years. Almost every market has made gains, settled back down a bit, and is now primed for more upside movement. If past bull market history can shed any light on the current situation, prices in many basic commodity markets will probably break out to historical highs over the next 2-3 years. Here are my picks for the best trades for 2007:

1 - Gold
Buy! I think that for at least the next few years, the floor of gold prices will hover near $550. Even though it ceilinged at more than $600 per ounce, the gold market later underwent a correction, retreating about 50% to between $625 and $525. When I wrote this article, the price had inched back up to $630. My prediction: gold will beat out its all-time high to hit more than $1,000 per ounce. Because gold prices lead those of silver, I recommend gold over the latter. It would amaze me if gold drops below $500 any time soon, but I can surely picture it skyrocketing to over $2,000 per ounce in the next 18 months.

2 - Cotton
Cotton has been, to date, sort of a "weak sister" in the overall bull market in basic commodity prices. Whenever it decides to join the flow of the overall market, expect it to play catch-up rapidly. Today, cotton is languishing around the 50-cent level, despite steadily increasing export demands from China and India, and despite the fact that the cotton belt across the South still has not fully bounced back from the destruction of Hurricane Katrina. My expectation: cotton will double in price during the next 24 months.

3 - Wheat
Among the grains, wheat has shown unfailing strength almost since the beginning of the current bull market. Even on days when USDA reports knocked down soybeans and corn, wheat managed to push through. My long-term price target for wheat is $8-$10.

4 - Cocoa
Cocoa has been acting similar to the gold market--that is, it spent a number of years going not much of anywhere at all, and certainly not higher. Then, at the start of the current bull market, it shot all the way up to the mid-20s in price. Since then, it has moved back down the to the $14-$15 level, and has recently shown signs of bottoming out and recovering. Look for cocoa, like nearly all other commodities, to shoot back up, setting new all-time highs during this second stretch of the bull market. If you missed the run-up the first time, don't get caught standing on the sidelines again. Buy cocoa.

5 - The CRB Index
Want to find the easy way out? Then just buy the CRB Index, and take advantage of gains across the whole market. This is the most forceful bull market in commodities in history. Just as you could have struck rick in the 1980s and 1990s simply by buying the Dow Jones or S&P Index (as opposed to trying to pick individual stocks), you can take gains from the total market trend upward in commodity futures simply by buying the CRB Index, and save yourself the trouble of trying to figure out which specific market is the hottest at any given moment along the way. Individual markets will, of course, have their highs and lows, but overall market momentum should remain strongly tilted to the upside. We're in a bull market, plain and simple.

The opportunity to make money in the commodity markets over the next 5 years is the single greatest investment opportunity that I have ever seen. I do not expect to see another one like it within the next 50 years. Do not miss out on this chance to create a fortune that could take all your financial worries away, in the space of just a few years.

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The trading profits to be made over the next 5-7 years in basic commodities is unimaginable. You don't want to miss out on this "perfect storm" market opportunity. We are now entering the next phase of the first major move in the commodity markets in the past 30 years. Almost every market has made gains, settled back down a bit, and is now primed for more upside movement. If past bull market history can shed any light on the current situation, prices in many basic commodity markets will ...

Halston Adams worked as futures broker until he stumbled onto his recipe for generating enviable returns by studying successful traders. Learn more about his trading approach at: Futures Trading Strategy today.

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