When you tell someone that you bet on horses for a living it is amazing to see their reaction. I remember at one party this very proper woman looked at me and said “But you look so normal”. I am not sure whether to take that as a compliment or not.
This point is that most people have a lot of misconceptions about gambling and horse racing in particular. Some believe it is just a case of picking a horse out with a pin whilst other think that if a horse is favourite it must win so all you have to do is back the favourite. Oh if it was so easy.
Backing the favourite in every race is a certain route to the poor house. Statistically favourites only win about a third of the races and as they are usually at short prices it is impossible to make a profit. Of course you could be more selective and only back favourites in certain types of race were they have a better record for winning favourites.
I do most of my betting in the UK and I think if you want to back favourites the best bet is to back the market leader at Chepstow in a 4Year old Stakes race where they have had a 67% success rate or the same at Chester where they have a 65% record. The Chepstow statistics are a little suspect as there have only been 3 qualifiers and 2 winners.
Another approach is to look for longer priced horse which if successful will give you a good return for your bet. This is probably as good an approach as any if you are just going for a day at the races and a bit of fun. However, trying to consistently find long priced winners is not very easy and a lot have people have gone broke trying.
You could always turn to “expert” advice. Most national newspapers have racing specialists who give tips on nearly all the races being run. Unfortunately their record is not very good and very few of them seem to show a profit over a racing season.
Most people who make money from racing spend many hours pouring over form books and consulting statistics to try and find winners. They tend to be more successful than the random punter but it is not exactly the glamorous life that many people conjure up in their mind when you tell them you’re a professional gambler. So after due consideration I am quite pleased that I look normal.
Do you think you could recognise a professional gambler if you met one? Are they any different from other people? Would you let your daughter marry one?
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